In 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump predicted that he would win a majority of black voters when he ran for reelection in 2020. The idea at the time seemed ridiculous, bordering on insane. It was just Trump doing his usual exaggerated-braggadocious routine, and everyone knew to treat it like the tongue-in-cheek remark that it undoubtedly was.
But now…now that remark doesn’t seem quite so absurd.
While it’s still extremely unlikely that Trump will garner a majority of black votes in next year’s election (unless he happens to get lucky and draw Pete Buttigieg as an opponent), he is doing far better with black voters than any Republican president in modern history. According to both Emerson Polling and Rasmussen Reports, Trump currently has 34% support among black likely voters – a number that should send waves of fear trembling through the Democratic Party.
From Paul Bedard’s Washington Secrets:
A new Zogby Analytics survey found that African American support is at the “highest levels of the year,” driven by a strong economy, historically low black unemployment, and Trump’s agenda to support minority small businesses, historically black colleges and universities, and passage of criminal justice reform.
“Not surprisingly, all African Americans do not hate Trump!” pollster Jonathan Zogby said in sharing his data with us.
But Trump critics don’t buy it. Democratic and Barack Obama pollster Cornell Belcher is one. He rejected the reasoning that black support is growing and suggested that the polls are wrong.
“Those reasons would assume that it’s real, which it isn’t. To have a conversation about the reason is giving it credibility,” he said.
“I’m not going to bad mouth anyone’s polling here, but particularly with small subsamples, you get blips. When you look across the data and even look back to see what the trend is, it’s pretty apparent that numbers like that are outliers,” added Belcher, the founder of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies.
Boy, you have to love the arrogance of those whose narratives are set in stone. We would love to go back to November 2016 and find out just how certain Cornell Belcher was that Hillary Clinton would be the 45th President of the United States. 100%. More?
The truth is, you could slice those poll numbers in half and still be left with something that should terrify the Democratic Party. Mid-teens support among blacks for a Republican president? That’s an existential crisis for the left, and it would prove that Blexit is much more than a social media phenomenon.