According to the latest poll from Bloomberg Politics, Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by two points in the crucial swing state of Florida as early voting gets underway in the Sunshine State.
The poll has Trump at 45% with Clinton at 43%, a lead that isn’t quite outside the margin of error. The survey includes third-party contenders Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, who are polling at 2% and 4% respectively.
The Bloomberg poll could be the first major indication that Trump has – miraculously – once again snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. When Quinnipiac University polled Floridians after the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape, Hillary was up by four points. The new survey shows that voters may be moving on, ready to put the interests of the country ahead of whatever sexual scandals are surrounding the Republican nominee.
No other state in the country is as essential to a Trump victory as Florida. According to FiveThirtyEight, there is a 19% chance that Florida will be the state that determines it all on November 8. The polls show that while Hillary can conceivable still get to 270 without winning the state, she’ll have only a 33% chance of doing so. In other words, if Trump takes Florida, there will be cause to get (cautiously) excited on election night about a historic moment in American history. There’s a reason both candidates have spent the majority of their time in Florida over the last month.
The poll matches what we’ve seen from the early voting statistics in Florida. Reports show that early voting has split 40% Democrat, 42% Republican, possibly signaling a Trump victory. In 2012, early voting favored the Democrats by three percentage points; Obama went on to win Florida on his way to securing a second term in office.
It just goes to show you – it’s not over until it’s over. Forget the polls, including this one. Go out and make sure your vote is counted. Once the networks project the winner, everything else ceases to matter. We can still shock the world.
And we can still make America great again.